CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-06-04T10:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-06-04T10:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25453/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the southwest in all coronagraphs (SOHO LASCO C2/C3, STEREO A COR2). Leading edge is faint and wide. Source is a large filament eruption seen spanning from about S32W10 to S10W50 in SDO AIA 304 starting at about 2023-06-04T09:00Z (Centered at S25W30). Post-eruptive dimming can be seen in SDO AIA 193 along the southwest quadrant of the Sun at 09:27Z, and ejecta can be seen off the southwest limb in SDO AIA 171 at 09:42Z. The filament can also be seen erupting in STEREO A EUVI 195/304 starting at 08:25Z/8:15Z, respectively. From LASSOS team discussion: this signature is likely a flank arrival of a CME passing West of Earth.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-06-07T22:25Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-06-07T08:29Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 692.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 421.356 Acceleration: 1.37838 Duration in seconds: 252327.28 Duration in days: 2.9204547 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 1.38 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 769.2 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 07/06/2023 Time: 08:29 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 75.30 hour(s)
Difference: 13.93 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2023-06-04T19:07Z
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